Effects of Brexit

by Peter Beretich

The Effects of Brexit on the British People

Outline

Introduction
What led to the vote passing?
Why did the British people choose to leave?
What role did EU regulation play?

Predictions
How the media and locals reacted to the vote.
Historian predictions
Economist predictions

Reality
What is happening now as the UK begins the process of leaving
UK general election

Future
Are things looking up for the British people?
Was it the right choice?
Does the vote in France give an indication to the sentiment of the rest of Europe
Is this the beginning of the end for Globalism?

Conclusion

Abstract

The aim of my project is to determine how the Brexit vote and measures being taken affect the British people, and comparing the media's coverage to the resulting vote. Previously I have taken Modern European History and Video Production, and plan on combining what I have learned in each to create an aesthetically pleasing visual medium to display my research on the stated topic. During my time in London I hope to better understand how social and economic factors play a role in globalization.

Introduction

I suggest you save this section for last. Describe the essence of this project. Cover what the project is and who cares in the first two sentences. Then cover what others have done like it, how your project is different. Discuss the extent to which your strategy for completing this project was new to you, or an extension of previous HUA experiences.

As you continue to think about your project milestones, reread the "Goals" narrative on defining project milestones from the HU2900 syllabus. Remember: the idea is to have equip your milestone with a really solid background and then some sort of "thing that you do". You'll need to add in some narrative to describe why you did the "thing that you did", which you'd probably want to do anyway. You can make it easy for your advisors to give you a high grade by ensuring that your project milestone work reflects careful, considerate, and comprehensive thought and effort in terms of your background review, and insightful, cumulative, and methodical approaches toward the creative components of your project milestone deliverables.

PLEASE NOTE: this milestone template has only a few sections as examples, but your actual milestone should have many relevant sections and subsections. Please start to block out and complete those sections asking yourself "who, what, when, where, and why".

Remember, as you move toward your creative deliverable, you're going to want/need a solid background that supports your case, so you want it to paint a clear and thorough picture of what's going on, so that you can easily dissect your creative component and say "This thing I did is rooted in this aspect of my background research".

Section 1: Background

In the months leading up to the Brexit vote, one question was in the minds of people worldwide; why did British citizens want to leave the EU? If this referendum was even just being put to a vote, that meant there was a significant interest in leaving, and this worried the international community. The Brexit vote came along in response to a nationalistic movement that desired more sovereignty and trade and economic that was drafted with the British people in mind,.

The case for leaving is one to do with concerns over sovereignty. According to the House of Commons Library, between 15 and 50% of United Kingdom legislation is drafted by the European Union. Therefore, it is understandable why the relatively nationalistic British people were unhappy with their loss of power. Appealing to this nationalist sentiment was one of the driving factors towards the Brexit win.

The nation went through with preparing a vote as then Prime Minister David Cameron honored his campaign promise to put the referendum to a vote, which he believed was a way to keep the conservative party united. During his re-reelection campaign in 2015, Cameron expressed his disdain with the EU, but after the European Union agreed to give Britain more power over the regulations, he became in favor of staying in the EU.

Before the vote there was much uncertainty around what the result would be, because of inconsistent polls, and a media narrative that did not accurately represent the sentiment of the people. An article from Bloomberg magazine in April 2016 claimed the probability of Brexit was 20%. Then, less than a month later, the pendulum swung in favor of leaving, although only 3 percentage points ahead of the “Remain camp.” This fluctuation could have been a sudden change in the sentiment of the british people, but more likely it was discrepancy in data collection.

A short term impact projection, released by the Her Majesty’s Treasury, predicted that the GDP would drop, unemployment would rise, and house prices would fall. Chancellor George Osborne stated a Brexit would cause an “immediate and profound” shock to the economy of Britain. Brexit-supporters, including economist Patrick Minford, rebutted, pointing out how much money would be saved by leaving, specifically by “not being a member of the Common Agricultural Policy and not having to abide by EU regulation.”

Historians also had their take on Brexit. In his book, “Britain’s Europe”, Brendan Simms makes the case that Britain’s future is not being cut off from Europe, because its past is deeply rooted in the continent. Britain has always fought to keep power from a single source, from The Napoleonic Wars to the World Wars. Without taking a side, meaning can be found from these insights that support both “Stay” and “Leave.”

Section 2: Deliverable

An American's Observations on Brexit and Media Coverage

It has been a year since the Brexit vote, and with the current conservative government pursuing a deal with the EU leaders before the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, it is a good time to analyse the media coverage and whether it was right. I examined the 3 right wing newspapers and tabloid's coverage, as well as 3 left wing papers. Conservative leaning papers are the Sun, the Daily Mail, and the Daily Telegraph. Labour-leaning papers are the Daily Mirror, The Guardian, and the Independent. What should be considered while reading this is that conservative papers constitute the majority of print papers in circulation. However, considering the younger generation reads news mostly online and through social media, and television networks are not necessarily conservative biased. This paper only looks at UK newspapers, which is just one facet of news consumption in the United Kingdom.

Media Coverage

Barack Obama's Comments about Brexit

An article by the Daily Mail in April of 2016 ran with the title "Obama infuriates the Brits as he threatens to send UK 'to the back of the queue' if they vote to leave the European Union." The only example of a Brit furious with Obama's statement, however, was pro-Brexit advocate and at the time mayor of London Boris Johnson. This title and article are therefore somewhat misleading, and throughout the article there is a use of inciting anger in the reader-base. After all, if your fellow Brits are angry, shouldn't you as well?

In The Guardian, a Labour leaning publication, an article on Obama's same comments was also published. The Guardian did not attempt to incite anger from President Obama's comments, but did still mention Johnson's concerns as well as Cabinet minister Chris Grayling's comments, who states that Obama's speech was about "politics and not reality." The Guardian mentioned Obama's popularity in the United Kingdom, whereas the Daily Mail did not.

In his 2005 book "The Defeat of Solidarity: Anger and politics in postcommunist Europe," author David Ost claims that "Propo­nents of an alternative globalization, universal human rights, or "fair" rather than "free" trade are all more likely today to organize on the global rather than the domestic level." These are the pillars that left-wing parties have traditionally built themselves on top of, and according to Ost, this group of people is less likely to use the anger of the people in its favor. As we can see with the right-leaning publication the Daily Mail, they know how to use anger to evoke a reaction from their readers.

The Convention, a discussion of post-Brexit Britain

I had the opportunity to visit the Convention, which is self described as a "public debate on the deep impacts of Brexit and the Political Crash." I went there with an open mind, keen on observing how the British people - or at least those from the Greater London area - were reacting to what had happened almost a year ago at that point. This happened in early May, before the General election in June. I was not surprised to find that the majority of voices in the crowd were individuals not happy with the outcome of the vote. After all, why would Pro-Brexiters go to an event like this, since they had essentially already "won."

I only came for the second day, but what I noticed was the large selection of voices the Convention was hosting. There was still more keynote speeches from the Remain camp, but during panel discussions both sides were represented equally. I was very appreciative of this, considering that in America, most political conventions are more of an echo-chamber. However, I cannot draw conclusions about the politics of the British people, because it could have just been a well run convention, or they were hoping for clashing between the two sides, which they got.

A particularly insightful event was when Conservative Minister of Parliament Michael Gove went up to give his keynote speech. Despite a lengthy opening from the host, asking the audience to be tolerant and respectful, Gove entered the stage to a chorus of booing. I wanted the stereotype of polite Brits to apply to their politics too, but this issue must have really struck a chord with the people present. Which is completely understandable, considering they had lost certain opportunities and would have to change some of their ways of life. As hecklers took to shouting at the speaker, I was a little disappointed, but this sort of thing would likely have happened at any other political forum brave enough to show both sides of the argument in the United States, or anywhere for that matter.

File:HecklingatTheConvention.mp4

At the end of the day, however, I cannot help but feel like no plan of action was produced. After all, there was no realistic way to go back on leaving the EU, and even if they did so, the British government and its people would appear weak on the global stage.

Conclusion

In this section, provide a summary or recap of your work, as well as potential areas of further inquiry (for yourself, future students, or other researchers).